What a ridiculously bold, unfounded, and unnecessary assessment. There's not a single opinion stated in there that's based on fact.
While I would agree that it's inevitable that Apple will release an app store for the Apple TV, it's taken them over 6 months to update the firmware for the iPad, what makes you think they'll update the Apple TV in the "not too distant future"? And even if they did, there will still be a fair wait for new apps to be developed and approved for the device.
The first generation Apple TV is still more expensive than the new Apple TV, and there were 4 years between the two. What makes you think they'll release a new version in under a year? And if it's as good as you seem to think it will be, why would they need to?
Do you have some information that no one else does? The current Google TV is $299. What makes you think there will be a $200 price drop anytime soon?
Roku already has a retail strategy, via their partnership with Netgear. The Netgear Roku boxes are already available at Fry's, and will soon be available at Best Buy and other big box stores.
Roku has already hinted at major interface updates coming. That aside, I personally find the current Apple TV Netflix interface to be very cumbersome and unfriendly. Otherwise the interface elsewhere is nothing but a black screen with cover art and reflections, with a soft blue glow around black buttons. I'm not really sure what's "high end" or "rich" about that, but ok...
Have you developed using the Android and iOS SDKs?
All of that aside, the OP asked about current Roku market share, not where you personally think Roku will be in a year. With nearly a million devices sold, I think they have a pretty significant lead on any competitive devices, especially when those devices haven't even been available for a month yet...
EDIT: I just read the blog linked in your profile, and it seems to have the opposite opinion of what you posted here. What's up with that?
Unnecessary assessment I disagree, if my department is looking to expend its limited recourses on a platform, it is not enough to merely look at past and current market share. I must look forward to the future of the market; I need to find some way to try and determine which platform will allow for the greatest growth of my product. That will require some educated guesses, based on what information can be gathered about the intensions of the producers of the platforms in question. I will also look to try and guess about changes that I deem to be wise business decisions and expect the wise people running each company to come to those same conclusions.
In my opinion the biggest hurdle to releasing an app store for the Apple TV is the updated SDK that will be needed to handle the new display format and updates to handle the input of the remote along with the general UI guidelines apple publishes.
Therefore some company will either make a $99 Google TV set-top box or there will be no successful Google TV set-top box and we will only see Google TV integrated into new televisions.
If this is true then Roku needs to update their F.A.Q. http://support.roku.com/entries/221209- ... eb-outlets My belief of there not being a retail strategy is based off of information gleaned from the website, as any other consumer would. This also sounds less like a retail strategy and more like a licensing strategy. Having said that a solid licensing strategy could be just as effective as a retail strategy.
When I speak of an OpenGL based interface that ALLOWS for FAST and high end graphical interfaces I am not only talking about the OS interface but what can be created when one uses the graphical elements exposes for creating one’s own application.
Speaking to the OS interface, the first comparison any consumer is going to make is how it looks and even though that Apple TV interface is very simple it is very shiny. The second impression they are going to get is speed and perceived smoothness of the interface and the Apple TV has that hands down, the interface is fast and the transitions are smooth and appealing. By comparison the Roku interface is painfully slow and jerky.
But beyond the basic OS interface, what the OS offers to developers to create “high end” interfaces is where the Roku really falls down. The best you get is some 2D graphics surfaces that can be updated about 5 times per second. Outside of that you get some generic list interface constructs and static splash pages. Just not very compelling for third party companies who wish to have significant control of the look and feel of their product.
I have developed for iOS my self and have many friends who develop for Android. I can create an application with equivalent complexity to a Roko channel in less than a day with the iOS SDK, but in a week I can create an iOS application with quite a lot more functionality than any Roku channel with richer custom interfaces, and many back end functions that are not even provided by the Roku SDK. Arguably you can make the Roku do some things that don’t come out of the box but they are very difficult to get to work and take a lot more time that equivalent functionality that comes out of the box with the iOS SDK. Those friends of mine that develop for Android seem to be able to build things even faster than similar applications using the iOS SDK.
As for the million devices sold, that is not really a significant install base as far a platforms go.
Unnecessary in that the OP didn't ask for opinions. While I would agree that one should look at the future to make decisions like this, it's their responsibility to evaluate it themselves, not be biased by another individuals opinions, valid or otherwise. I don't think it's very fair for you to come on to Roku's forums and try to discourage development based on where you think it may be in a year or so. By doing that, you're just helping along what you've decided is inevitable.
I suspect that that's a much bigger hurdle than you may be giving it credit. Moving from a touch interface to a 7 button remote interface is going to require significant updates to existing applications.
You're making my point for me. I agree that Google TV will fail at its current price point. There's nothing to suggest that will be different, yet you still claim that they will be part of the downfall of Roku. Apple TV is the only real competitor in this space at the moment, so comparisons to Google TV and what it can do are not valid... yet.
http://www.engadget.com/2010/10/13/netg ... retail-ev/
The Roku Netflix UI beats the Apple TV UI hands down, both in performance and functionality (and one could argue, visually). The new Roku SDK will include access to the same grid UI for developers, and presumably the new Roku UI will use a derivative of it too. There's a screenshot on the Roku homepage that hints at what may be to come. Hopefully they'll come out with something that is a bit snazzier than the current...
Fair enough. Have you developed anything for the Roku, though? I'm still not sure how you can make the comparison unless you've actually worked with the SDK.
I think it's pretty significant for a device that has only been available, primarily, from a single website until recently.
Frankly you could make the Revue for under $99 if you downgraded the video hardware, ditched the keyboard for an IR remote, and ditched the mini blaster.
Then you don't have a GoogleTV device. Those are 3 of the main distinguishing characteristics.
I disagree, I think you are wrongly conflating Android OS with GoogleTV. There are already Android based Set Top Boxes and they're something else missing the features of GoogleTV. Anyone can already put Android on a box (and several have) but they're not GoogleTV boxes.
still believe that extensive text entry on the Television is simply something people are really not going to be interest in doing. As for internet access we have smart phones and tablets that provide a superior couch based internet experience than browsing on a TV, I have used many devices to access the internet on my TV and after a few minutes I am pulling out my laptop at letting the TV play some video.
"kelly.j.anderson" wrote:still believe that extensive text entry on the Television is simply something people are really not going to be interest in doing. As for internet access we have smart phones and tablets that provide a superior couch based internet experience than browsing on a TV, I have used many devices to access the internet on my TV and after a few minutes I am pulling out my laptop at letting the TV play some video.
By internet I actually mean Web Browsing. I believe internet delivered content is going to be key to the future television experience but browsing the web was designed for a computer based experience and just not compatible with the television experience. Even with web access I believe that people will prefer apps and an app store designed to be accessed with a simple remote to find their apps.